Ready
Configure an offer on the left, then run the simulation.
Findings & fixes
Run the simulation to see findings.
Campaign profit & loss — one month
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Net to casino by segment
per claim—
Game exposure
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Best exploit strategy found
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Sensitivity — sweep one lever across its range
every value simulatedPick a lever and run a sweep to see how the exploit edge and casino margin move across its whole range.
How this works & what to trust
Read me first. This is a decision-support model, not a guarantee. It simulates thousands of claims under explicit, editable assumptions to show expected bonus cost and whether a rational abuser has a positive-EV strategy. It cannot prove an offer is fraud-proof — it prices the risk so you can set terms that remove the edge. Calibrate the player-behaviour and detection inputs with your own bet-log data before trusting the magnitudes.
The model in brief
- Two-wallet bonus engine: real money staked before bonus; winnings return to the funding wallet; every eligible bet counts toward wagering weighted by contribution. On completion the bonus converts to cash (capped by max cashout); non-sticky bonuses are forfeited on withdrawal.
- Per-game payout tables calibrated to each game's RTP with realistic volatility, so variance — not just average edge — drives the result.
- Five archetypes: casual players, high rollers, bonus hunters (EV-optimal), rule-breakers, and multi-account rings priced after your KYC catch-rate.
- Strategy search over deposit, game, bet size and deposit-first play, screened on shared random numbers then re-measured on fresh seeds so the reported edge isn't cherry-picked.
Reading the numbers
- Net to casino is positive when the casino keeps money and negative when it pays out. Bonus cost is payout as a share of deposits.
- Best exploit EV is the per-claim expected value to the smartest abuser. Above zero (and outside noise) means the terms are beatable.
- Every figure carries Monte-Carlo noise; an edge within ±2 standard errors of zero is treated as break-even, not an exploit.
Defaults approximate publicly documented FortuneJack terms (30x bonus wagering, $10 max bet, 5x max win, Originals & table games excluded from the welcome bonus) as of Sep 2026. Verify against your live T&Cs.